Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSD -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | UCSD -135 TOW +114 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSD +14 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | UCSD -2.4 (+11.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.0 (+25.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSD -2.6 (+11.4) | 125.7 (+34.3) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSD -2.2 (+11.8) | 130.3 (+29.7) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSD -2.0 (+12.0) | 128.5 (+31.5) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSD -1.0 (+13.0) | 124.3 (+35.7) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSD | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 9-9 |
| Home | 10-5 | 11-3 |
| Away | 8-5 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 67.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 66.4 |
| Massey | 7.8 (#70) | 5.4 (#94) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.82 (#18) | 2.17 (#44) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.55 (#19) | 3.52 (#39) |
| RPI | 0.734 (#3) | 0.608 (#48) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSD | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.4% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 38.6% | 23.7% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 39.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.53 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.5% | 45.4% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 22.4% | 35.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 46.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 75.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 18.4% |
Game Analysis
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