Betting Lines
| O/U | 163.5 Under |
| Money | TOL +164 BEL -198 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BEL +15 | 159 | Lost |
| Massey | BEL -6.5 (-8.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.9 (+9.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BEL -5.4 (-9.6) | 146.6 (+12.4) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BEL -4.8 (-10.2) | 144.3 (+14.7) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BEL -3.7 (-11.3) | 146.3 (+12.7) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BEL -3.1 (-11.9) | 146.7 (+12.3) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 26-6 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 16-4 |
| Home | 11-4 | 13-2 |
| Away | 5-9 | 11-3 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.8 | 83.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.4 | 74.1 |
| Massey | 1.0 (#150) | 7.4 (#73) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.85 (#118) | 2.34 (#36) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.14 (#127) | 3.77 (#33) |
| RPI | 0.518 (#156) | 0.534 (#128) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.2% | 51.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.5% | 59.2% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 34.2% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 29.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.7% | 41.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 22.9% |
| DRB% | 65.7% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.5% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.