Betting Lines
| Spread | BUF -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | BUCK +180 BUF -218 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUCK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUF +2 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | BUF -12.4 (+10.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.0 (-0.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUF -7.2 (+5.2) | 137.5 (+6.5) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUF -8.0 (+6.0) | 140.8 (+3.2) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BUF -8.6 (+6.6) | 141.6 (+2.4) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUF -8.6 (+6.6) | 139.9 (+4.1) | 21% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUCK | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-23 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 7-11 |
| Home | 6-8 | 7-8 |
| Away | 4-13 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 77.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.3 | 77.0 |
| Massey | -8.5 (#304) | 3.8 (#117) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.37 (#285) | 2.54 (#29) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.97 (#280) | 3.59 (#37) |
| RPI | 0.394 (#318) | 0.624 (#37) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUCK | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.7% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 39.3% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.6% | 55.0% |
| TOV% | 21.6% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 24.7% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 29.0% | 51.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 54.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.4% | 29.2% |
Game Analysis
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