Betting Lines
| Spread | VCU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 172.5 Under |
| Money | VCU -118 USF -102 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VCU +12 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | USF -1.7 (+13.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 175.2 (-31.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VCU -0.7 (+11.3) | 164.3 (-20.3) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USF -1.4 (+13.4) | 160.5 (-16.5) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USF -1.6 (+13.6) | 162.5 (-18.5) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USF -1.5 (+13.5) | 165.5 (-21.5) | 46% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 24, 2024 | VCU 70 – 65 USF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VCU | USF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-8 | 25-9 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 15-3 |
| Home | 15-2 | 13-2 |
| Away | 7-3 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.8 | 86.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 76.5 |
| Massey | 11.6 (#45) | 13.3 (#32) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.14 (#168) | 0.74 (#122) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.53 (#150) | 1.51 (#107) |
| RPI | 0.489 (#197) | 0.510 (#164) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VCU | USF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 41.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 16.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.6% | 55.5% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 35.4% | 42.4% |
| FT Rate | 32.9% | 41.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 23.3% |
| DRB% | 64.4% | 64.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.5% | 34.9% |
Game Analysis
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