Betting Lines
| Spread | NMSU -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | NMSU -900 GAST +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NMSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NMSU +19 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | NMSU -15.8 (+3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.8 (-6.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NMSU -12.2 (+6.8) | 134.6 (+0.4) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NMSU -10.8 (+8.2) | 138.2 (-3.2) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NMSU -12.0 (+7.0) | 134.8 (+0.2) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NMSU -12.6 (+6.4) | 134.4 (+0.6) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NMSU | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 7-11 |
| Home | 10-5 | 7-7 |
| Away | 3-8 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 68.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.8 | 75.4 |
| Massey | 1.8 (#137) | -14.0 (#348) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.85 (#57) | -3.37 (#352) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.92 (#60) | -4.63 (#345) |
| RPI | 0.735 (#2) | 0.349 (#343) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NMSU | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 33.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 26.5% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 2.21 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 39.3% |
| TOV% | 11.1% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 28.3% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.3% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 64.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.1% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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