Betting Lines
| Spread | MAN -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | MAN -170 WAG +142 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAG +2 | 204 | Lost |
| Massey | WAG -5.9 (+3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.6 (+41.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAG -0.9 (-1.1) | 149.1 (+54.9) | 48% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAG -1.1 (-0.9) | 150.5 (+53.5) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAG -1.7 (-0.3) | 149.4 (+54.6) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WAG -0.7 (-1.3) | 152.6 (+51.4) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 19, 2024 | MAN 80 – 66 WAG |
| Dec 31, 2023 | WAG 68 – 56 MAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MAN | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 8-10 |
| Home | 7-7 | 8-5 |
| Away | 3-12 | 6-12 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.6 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -13.4 (#344) | -1.5 (#206) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.12 (#172) | -1.74 (#305) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.22 (#191) | -2.06 (#289) |
| RPI | 0.520 (#150) | 0.413 (#301) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MAN | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 37.4% | 40.4% |
| REB / G | 30.4 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 33.9% | 16.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.5% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.0% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 59.3% | 64.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 31.8% |
Game Analysis
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