Betting Lines
| Spread | VT -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VT +2 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | VT -2.8 (+0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.8 (-35.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSU -0.8 (-2.8) | 156.2 (-26.2) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VT -2.4 (+0.4) | 156.3 (-26.3) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VT -3.6 (+1.6) | 155.7 (-25.7) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VT -3.0 (+1.0) | 155.4 (-25.4) | 33% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSU | VT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 8-10 |
| Home | 12-6 | 14-3 |
| Away | 6-5 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 74.9 |
| Massey | 7.3 (#75) | 10.1 (#56) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.20 (#196) | 2.92 (#16) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.14 (#185) | 4.89 (#15) |
| RPI | 0.456 (#247) | 0.647 (#23) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSU | VT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.6% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 44.9% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 42.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 13.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.81 | 2.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 63.8% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 10.9% |
| ORB% | 38.5% | 35.2% |
| FT Rate | 49.2% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 45.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.8% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 77.0% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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