Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | UNCW -850 SELA +575 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +13 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | UNCW -15.0 (-2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.1 (-4.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -12.7 (+0.3) | 132.4 (-5.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -11.9 (+1.1) | 135.5 (-8.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -13.2 (-0.2) | 133.6 (-6.6) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -15.0 (-2.0) | 131.5 (-4.5) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCW | SELA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-7 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 6-16 |
| Home | 15-4 | 5-7 |
| Away | 12-2 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.6 | 64.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 2.5 (#131) | -6.7 (#276) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#152) | -2.50 (#334) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.49 (#210) | -4.22 (#338) |
| RPI | 0.544 (#118) | 0.360 (#342) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCW | SELA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 34.4% |
| 3PT% | 37.9% | 23.7% |
| REB / G | 40.5 | 30.5 |
| OREB / G | 14.5 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 39.5% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 40.3% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 54.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 32.8% |
Game Analysis
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