Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | WICH +425 SMC -575 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +5 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | SMC -1.8 (-3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.9 (-3.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -3.5 (-1.5) | 137.9 (-2.9) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -1.8 (-3.2) | 139.8 (-4.8) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -1.4 (-3.6) | 139.9 (-4.9) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -0.6 (-4.4) | 137.0 (-2.0) | 49% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WICH | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 27-6 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 16-2 |
| Home | 15-3 | 17-0 |
| Away | 8-5 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.6 | 76.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 65.2 |
| Massey | 10.5 (#52) | 12.2 (#39) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.71 (#129) | 2.25 (#39) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.52 (#109) | 3.22 (#49) |
| RPI | 0.497 (#178) | 0.653 (#17) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WICH | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 50.0% |
| 3PT% | 38.8% | 45.6% |
| REB / G | 42.2 | 42.0 |
| OREB / G | 15.0 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 1.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 58.5% |
| TOV% | 13.2% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 40.5% | 41.7% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 36.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.8% | 42.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 75.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 15.6% |
Game Analysis
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