Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | SDSU +114 BAY -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +10 | 172 | Lost |
| Massey | BAY -3.2 (-6.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.6 (+6.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -2.4 (-7.6) | 154.1 (+17.9) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -2.2 (-7.8) | 157.6 (+14.4) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -2.0 (-8.0) | 157.1 (+14.9) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -2.7 (-7.3) | 156.4 (+15.6) | 42% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDSU | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 6-12 |
| Home | 14-2 | 11-6 |
| Away | 5-5 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 80.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 76.9 |
| Massey | 4.7 (#104) | 7.8 (#70) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.26 (#163) | 1.49 (#81) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.34 (#116) | 2.36 (#76) |
| RPI | 0.510 (#166) | 0.623 (#35) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDSU | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 40.4% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 15.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.6% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 21.4% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 34.3% | 40.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 55.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 64.4% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 17.9% |
Game Analysis
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