Betting Lines
| Spread | JMU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | UIC +135 JMU -155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UIC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JMU +18 | 180 | Lost |
| Massey | UIC -6.5 (-24.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.3 (+18.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UIC -3.4 (-21.4) | 150.8 (+29.2) | 66% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UIC -0.4 (-18.4) | 149.2 (+30.8) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UIC -2.2 (-20.2) | 148.9 (+31.1) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UIC -3.9 (-21.9) | 151.8 (+28.2) | 62% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UIC | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-14 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 13-5 |
| Home | 9-5 | 13-2 |
| Away | 7-6 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.3 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 5.3 (#86) | -1.2 (#197) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.81 (#125) | -0.33 (#209) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.42 (#110) | 0.00 (#189) |
| RPI | 0.550 (#118) | 0.345 (#329) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UIC | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 40.0% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 13.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 37.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 19.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.5% | 58.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 14.1% |
| DRB% | 79.1% | 86.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 36.4% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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