Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | FLA -800 TCU +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TCU +4 | 164 | Lost |
| Massey | FLA -9.5 (-13.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.8 (+21.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -5.1 (-9.1) | 146.0 (+18.0) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -5.8 (-9.8) | 141.8 (+22.2) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -6.0 (-10.0) | 144.1 (+19.9) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -4.9 (-8.9) | 145.5 (+18.5) | 68% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 11-7 |
| Home | 14-1 | 14-5 |
| Away | 8-2 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 5-5 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 87.1 | 77.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 72.1 |
| Massey | 17.6 (#11) | 8.2 (#69) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.59 (#32) | -0.77 (#237) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.12 (#27) | -0.38 (#201) |
| RPI | 0.646 (#21) | 0.401 (#315) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 25.7% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 52.8 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 19.2 | 13.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 45.1% | 36.8% |
| FT Rate | 28.7% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 39.6% | 45.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 23.7% |
| DRB% | 76.7% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.0% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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