Betting Lines
| Spread | RICH -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | FUR +160 RICH -192 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FUR +1 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | RICH -10.6 (+11.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.3 (-0.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 3% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RICH -6.9 (+7.9) | 142.8 (+2.2) | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RICH -8.0 (+9.0) | 143.1 (+1.9) | 20% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | RICH -7.7 (+8.7) | 145.8 (-0.8) | 22% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RICH -8.6 (+9.6) | 144.0 (+1.0) | 18% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FUR | RICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 5-13 |
| Home | 11-5 | 11-7 |
| Away | 7-5 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 76.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -4.4 (#241) | 6.2 (#91) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.07 (#269) | 2.25 (#40) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.42 (#259) | 3.43 (#38) |
| RPI | 0.467 (#225) | 0.556 (#100) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FUR | RICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 48.8% |
| 3PT% | 28.3% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 42.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.58 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 56.9% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 35.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.3% | 35.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.7% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 11.6% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 76.1% | 78.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 28.4% |
Game Analysis
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