Betting Lines
| Spread | SBU -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | ECU +410 SBU -550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ECU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SBU +9 | 125 | Lost |
| Massey | SBU -13.9 (+4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.5 (-25.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SBU -11.7 (+2.7) | 145.5 (-20.5) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SBU -10.0 (+1.0) | 145.9 (-20.9) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SBU -10.9 (+1.9) | 147.1 (-22.1) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SBU -11.8 (+2.8) | 144.8 (-19.8) | 17% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ECU | SBU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 4-14 |
| Home | 7-10 | 9-7 |
| Away | 4-8 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.7 | 75.4 |
| Massey | -11.5 (#330) | 2.4 (#134) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.26 (#280) | 1.86 (#59) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.32 (#299) | 2.78 (#59) |
| RPI | 0.475 (#214) | 0.641 (#24) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ECU | SBU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.9% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 25.3% | 38.1% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.8% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 40.6% |
| FT Rate | 30.9% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.2% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.4% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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