Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | VT +190 SMC -230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +11 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | SMC -2.4 (-8.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.6 (-7.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -3.2 (-7.8) | 147.3 (-4.3) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -1.3 (-9.7) | 144.6 (-1.6) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -1.7 (-9.3) | 146.1 (-3.1) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -0.5 (-10.5) | 146.3 (-3.3) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VT | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 27-6 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 16-2 |
| Home | 14-3 | 17-0 |
| Away | 3-7 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 76.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 65.2 |
| Massey | 9.8 (#61) | 12.2 (#39) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.09 (#16) | 2.25 (#39) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.03 (#15) | 3.22 (#49) |
| RPI | 0.661 (#15) | 0.653 (#17) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VT | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 50.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 45.6% |
| REB / G | 40.2 | 42.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 58.5% |
| TOV% | 11.2% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 41.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 36.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 42.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 75.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.8% | 15.6% |
Game Analysis
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