Western Kentucky
Hilltoppers
91
–
97
OT
FINAL
Neutral
Marriott Bonvoy Battle 4 Atlantis
South Florida
Bulls
Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 167.5 Over |
| Money | WKU +270 USF -340 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WKU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +6 | 188 | Lost |
| Massey | USF -5.1 (-0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 172.2 (+15.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USF -1.8 (-4.2) | 161.4 (+26.6) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USF -2.5 (-3.5) | 160.6 (+27.4) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USF -1.8 (-4.2) | 159.8 (+28.2) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USF -2.7 (-3.3) | 164.9 (+23.1) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WKU | USF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 25-9 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 15-3 |
| Home | 12-4 | 13-2 |
| Away | 5-7 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.9 | 86.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 76.5 |
| Massey | 6.1 (#92) | 11.2 (#48) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.66 (#72) | -0.09 (#183) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.68 (#63) | 0.31 (#164) |
| RPI | 0.530 (#143) | 0.490 (#186) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WKU | USF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 23.0% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 40.2 | 40.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 15.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 13.0% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 40.0% |
| FT Rate | 36.0% | 37.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 22.1% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 64.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.0% | 35.3% |
Game Analysis
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