Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | DAY -120 GTWN +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +5 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | GTWN -0.5 (+5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.4 (+19.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 9% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GTWN -0.2 (+5.2) | 142.2 (+20.8) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GTWN -1.4 (+6.4) | 140.4 (+22.6) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GTWN -1.2 (+6.2) | 141.5 (+21.5) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GTWN -0.7 (+5.7) | 144.3 (+18.7) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-12 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 6-14 |
| Home | 14-4 | 10-7 |
| Away | 8-5 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 73.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 72.9 |
| Massey | 3.2 (#121) | 3.8 (#111) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.14 (#93) | 3.45 (#11) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.94 (#134) | 5.10 (#14) |
| RPI | 0.575 (#74) | 0.560 (#89) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.9% | 26.9% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 38.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 11.0% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 37.4% | 39.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 44.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.9% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 34.9% |
Game Analysis
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