Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -13.5 Away covered |
| Money | FLA -950 PROV +625 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +12 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | FLA -10.6 (+1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 173.4 (-5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -8.1 (+3.9) | 165.5 (+2.5) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -7.2 (+4.8) | 160.5 (+7.5) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -6.4 (+5.6) | 160.8 (+7.2) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -6.7 (+5.3) | 165.0 (+3.0) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 7-13 |
| Home | 14-1 | 10-6 |
| Away | 8-2 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 5-5 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 87.1 | 85.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 84.0 |
| Massey | 15.7 (#20) | 5.2 (#98) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.09 (#94) | 1.17 (#92) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.91 (#83) | 2.12 (#80) |
| RPI | 0.581 (#66) | 0.576 (#73) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 26.0% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 49.2 | 41.0 |
| OREB / G | 17.7 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 54.4% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 43.6% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 30.3% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.4% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 14.3% |
| DRB% | 76.2% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.6% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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