Betting Lines
| Spread | SIE -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | SIE -270 LONG +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIE +7 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | SIE -9.1 (-2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.2 (-19.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SIE -5.7 (+1.3) | 143.6 (-10.6) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SIE -6.0 (+1.0) | 143.2 (-10.2) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SIE -5.7 (+1.3) | 143.9 (-10.9) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SIE -5.4 (+1.6) | 143.2 (-10.2) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIE | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-12 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 8-8 |
| Home | 9-4 | 11-4 |
| Away | 9-7 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.8 | 76.2 |
| Massey | 0.7 (#160) | -8.5 (#307) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.18 (#198) | -1.35 (#287) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.63 (#217) | -0.38 (#202) |
| RPI | 0.450 (#252) | 0.409 (#307) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIE | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 25.3% | 27.2% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 44.9% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 38.1% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 37.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 57.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 22.7% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 64.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.4% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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