Betting Lines
| Spread | OU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MARQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OU +1 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | OU -5.9 (+4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.8 (-11.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OU -3.9 (+2.9) | 155.2 (-6.2) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OU -4.5 (+3.5) | 151.2 (-2.2) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OU -4.8 (+3.8) | 153.5 (-4.5) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OU -3.5 (+2.5) | 154.9 (-5.9) | 33% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MARQ | OU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 21-16 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 7-11 |
| Home | 10-7 | 11-5 |
| Away | 2-10 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 82.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 77.4 |
| Massey | 1.1 (#152) | 7.0 (#80) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.73 (#239) | 0.57 (#135) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.01 (#239) | 1.04 (#129) |
| RPI | 0.442 (#262) | 0.476 (#208) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MARQ | OU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 39.6 | 39.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.7 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 1.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 54.7% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 13.0% |
| ORB% | 35.3% | 35.7% |
| FT Rate | 29.6% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 16.7% |
Game Analysis
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