Betting Lines
| Spread | MONM -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | BALL +130 MONM -155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BALL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MONM +7 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | MONM -9.9 (+2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.3 (+24.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MONM -6.7 (-0.3) | 132.3 (+20.7) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MONM -6.2 (-0.8) | 130.5 (+22.5) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MONM -5.7 (-1.3) | 130.4 (+22.6) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MONM -5.7 (-1.3) | 128.8 (+24.2) | 28% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BALL | MONM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-19 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 11-7 |
| Home | 7-7 | 10-4 |
| Away | 4-11 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Streak | W4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.4 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -11.1 (#327) | -1.2 (#187) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.23 (#324) | -0.33 (#210) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.57 (#327) | -1.18 (#250) |
| RPI | 0.345 (#347) | 0.461 (#233) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BALL | MONM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 39.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 28.0 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 44.9% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 21.8% |
| ORB% | 25.4% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 36.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.2% | 46.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.7% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 62.1% | 61.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 11.6% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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