Illinois State
Redbirds
72
–
65
FINAL
Neutral
Terry's Chocolate ESPN Events Invitational
Furman
Paladins
Betting Lines
| Spread | ILST -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILST +7 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | ILST -9.3 (-2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.1 (+3.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILST -5.5 (+1.5) | 137.2 (-0.2) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILST -6.9 (+0.1) | 136.1 (+0.9) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILST -6.1 (+0.9) | 137.7 (-0.7) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILST -7.5 (-0.5) | 137.1 (-0.1) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILST | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 14-2 | 11-5 |
| Away | 7-7 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 6.6 (#84) | -2.7 (#216) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.23 (#167) | 0.02 (#183) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.40 (#164) | -0.69 (#219) |
| RPI | 0.533 (#129) | 0.545 (#111) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILST | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 29.0% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 13.0% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 33.1% |
| FT Rate | 29.4% | 18.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 54.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.9% | 14.3% |
| DRB% | 77.3% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.