Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +15 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | USF -5.1 (-20.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.3 (-16.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USF -0.1 (-15.1) | 153.2 (-2.2) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USF -3.5 (-18.5) | 154.8 (-3.8) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USF -3.8 (-18.8) | 156.0 (-5.0) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USF -5.1 (-20.1) | 153.6 (-2.6) | 71% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-9 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 11-9 |
| Home | 13-2 | 12-6 |
| Away | 9-3 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 86.8 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.5 | 71.6 |
| Massey | 11.2 (#49) | 6.1 (#89) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.77 (#118) | -0.45 (#222) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.44 (#103) | -0.50 (#210) |
| RPI | 0.534 (#128) | 0.446 (#258) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 50.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 42.0% |
| REB / G | 42.1 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 15.9 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 1.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 61.0% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 38.7% | 37.3% |
| FT Rate | 35.6% | 41.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.9% | 12.8% |
| DRB% | 66.2% | 77.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.0% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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