Betting Lines
| O/U | 174.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TA&M +36 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | FSU -11.0 (-47.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.2 (-11.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FSU -7.6 (-43.6) | 160.3 (-6.3) | 77% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FSU -5.8 (-41.8) | 162.2 (-8.2) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FSU -7.0 (-43.0) | 159.6 (-5.6) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FSU -7.4 (-43.4) | 158.0 (-4.0) | 77% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FSU | TA&M |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 11-7 |
| Home | 11-6 | 14-4 |
| Away | 6-5 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.4 | 86.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.9 | 78.9 |
| Massey | 15.5 (#21) | 4.5 (#101) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.25 (#83) | -0.04 (#185) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.28 (#77) | 0.19 (#176) |
| RPI | 0.543 (#114) | 0.458 (#241) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FSU | TA&M |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 47.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.69 | 1.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 57.4% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 35.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 57.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.7% | 23.8% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.2% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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