Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GTWN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +13 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | MIA -13.1 (+0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.2 (-7.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIA -6.3 (-6.7) | 147.9 (-4.9) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -7.4 (-5.6) | 145.5 (-2.5) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -7.3 (-5.7) | 147.2 (-4.2) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -7.5 (-5.5) | 151.7 (-8.7) | 28% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GTWN | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-18 | 26-9 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 13-5 |
| Home | 10-7 | 15-3 |
| Away | 4-8 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.6 | 81.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.9 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 3.1 (#123) | 16.2 (#17) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.08 (#46) | 0.77 (#120) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.67 (#64) | 1.33 (#109) |
| RPI | 0.541 (#113) | 0.508 (#165) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GTWN | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 50.7% |
| 3PT% | 28.7% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 41.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.75 | 1.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 56.0% |
| TOV% | 12.1% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 34.9% |
| FT Rate | 36.1% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.6% | 46.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 36.2% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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