Betting Lines
| Spread | ECU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | JXST +155 ECU -185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JXST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JXST +8 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | JXST -3.7 (+4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.1 (+18.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JXST -1.8 (+6.2) | 138.8 (+25.2) | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JXST -1.5 (+6.5) | 139.4 (+24.6) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JXST -1.2 (+6.8) | 138.2 (+25.8) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JXST -1.3 (+6.7) | 136.8 (+27.2) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JXST | ECU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 10-8 |
| Home | 12-2 | 12-6 |
| Away | 8-8 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.9 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 73.9 |
| Massey | 0.1 (#177) | -3.7 (#246) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.38 (#213) | 0.71 (#133) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.95 (#239) | 0.66 (#156) |
| RPI | 0.474 (#216) | 0.619 (#54) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JXST | ECU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 33.6% |
| 3PT% | 29.7% | 22.0% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 46.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 20.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 38.1% |
| TOV% | 13.8% | 13.4% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 41.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 39.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 44.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 11.3% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 79.5% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.2% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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