Betting Lines
| Spread | DEP -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DEP +14 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | GT -1.4 (+15.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.6 (+2.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GT -0.8 (+14.8) | 138.5 (-2.5) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GT -1.6 (+15.6) | 135.1 (+0.9) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GT -2.1 (+16.1) | 137.0 (-1.0) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GT -1.5 (+15.5) | 141.5 (-5.5) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEP | GT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 2-16 |
| Home | 11-7 | 10-9 |
| Away | 4-7 | 1-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L12 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 77.4 |
| Massey | 0.2 (#170) | 1.6 (#145) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.14 (#269) | 1.11 (#97) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.38 (#256) | 1.18 (#122) |
| RPI | 0.401 (#316) | 0.538 (#115) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEP | GT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 43.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.58 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 31.2% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 40.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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