Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -1.5 Away covered |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +6 | 168 | Lost |
| Massey | SMU -5.6 (-0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.7 (+1.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -4.3 (-1.7) | 157.3 (+10.7) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -4.5 (-1.5) | 154.1 (+13.9) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -5.2 (-0.8) | 154.5 (+13.5) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -7.5 (+1.5) | 159.1 (+8.9) | 28% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 23, 2024 | MSST 84 – 79 SMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 8-10 |
| Home | 8-8 | 15-3 |
| Away | 4-6 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 1-5 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L6 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.6 | 84.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.8 | 77.9 |
| Massey | -0.2 (#172) | 11.0 (#51) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.42 (#153) | 3.13 (#16) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.21 (#119) | 4.58 (#21) |
| RPI | 0.495 (#185) | 0.621 (#32) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 50.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 37.4% |
| REB / G | 40.8 | 40.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 56.3% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 34.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 33.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 45.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 22.0% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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