Betting Lines
| Spread | COLG -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UALB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COLG +2 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | COLG -11.4 (+9.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.9 (-6.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COLG -6.9 (+4.9) | 138.8 (-2.8) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COLG -8.1 (+6.1) | 139.0 (-3.0) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COLG -7.7 (+5.7) | 139.1 (-3.1) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COLG -8.6 (+6.6) | 141.7 (-5.7) | 21% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UALB | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 11-7 |
| Home | 6-5 | 9-5 |
| Away | 4-13 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.7 | 75.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 76.2 |
| Massey | -9.1 (#311) | 2.2 (#137) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.03 (#318) | -0.37 (#210) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.07 (#315) | -0.34 (#204) |
| RPI | 0.395 (#323) | 0.527 (#137) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UALB | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.1% | 48.3% |
| 3PT% | 23.2% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 6.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.62 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.9% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 24.8% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 20.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 14.6% |
| DRB% | 59.4% | 64.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 39.9% | 28.9% |
Game Analysis
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