Betting Lines
| Spread | IDHO -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | IDHO -122 SHSU +102 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IDHO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SHSU +26 | 162 | Lost |
| Massey | SHSU -0.5 (-25.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.4 (+10.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IDHO -0.1 (-26.1) | 147.8 (+14.2) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IDHO -0.4 (-26.4) | 146.6 (+15.4) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | IDHO -0.5 (-26.5) | 148.8 (+13.2) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IDHO -0.3 (-26.3) | 149.9 (+12.1) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IDHO | SHSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-15 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 13-7 |
| Home | 9-4 | 13-1 |
| Away | 7-9 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.8 | 80.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.1 | 76.9 |
| Massey | 3.0 (#124) | 3.5 (#117) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.87 (#111) | 1.02 (#100) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.28 (#114) | 1.13 (#125) |
| RPI | 0.555 (#95) | 0.613 (#38) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IDHO | SHSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.5% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 38.9% |
| FT Rate | 29.1% | 30.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.2% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 78.9% | 58.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.7% | 41.2% |
Game Analysis
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