Betting Lines
| Spread | YSU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | MONM +165 YSU -195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MONM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | YSU +10 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | YSU -5.1 (-4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.5 (-25.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | YSU -5.3 (-4.7) | 148.3 (-14.3) | 29% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | YSU -4.6 (-5.4) | 149.5 (-15.5) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | YSU -4.0 (-6.0) | 151.9 (-17.9) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | YSU -3.9 (-6.1) | 150.4 (-16.4) | 32% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MONM | YSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 13-7 |
| Home | 8-2 | 10-5 |
| Away | 4-14 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 72.6 |
| Massey | -7.5 (#305) | -2.4 (#217) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.83 (#314) | 0.17 (#175) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.60 (#308) | 0.22 (#178) |
| RPI | 0.426 (#268) | 0.524 (#152) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MONM | YSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 35.8% | 37.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 22.2% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.8 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.0% | 41.9% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 32.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.0% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 40.0% | 27.9% |
Game Analysis
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