Betting Lines
| Spread | TXST -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | TXST -278 LEH +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TXST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LEH +4 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | TXST -0.5 (-4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.7 (+24.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TXST -2.1 (-6.1) | 129.8 (+22.2) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXST -1.8 (-5.8) | 130.2 (+21.8) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TXST -1.4 (-5.4) | 130.7 (+21.3) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TXST -1.8 (-5.8) | 130.2 (+21.8) | 58% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TXST | LEH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 18-17 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 11-7 |
| Home | 16-1 | 13-4 |
| Away | 3-9 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 74.4 |
| Massey | -6.7 (#276) | -7.2 (#283) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.04 (#188) | -2.41 (#329) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.20 (#195) | -3.84 (#331) |
| RPI | 0.485 (#196) | 0.412 (#302) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TXST | LEH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 28.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 7.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 46.8% |
| TOV% | 22.6% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 34.4% | 20.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 62.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.5% | 27.8% |
Game Analysis
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