Betting Lines
| Spread | MONM -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | LEM +235 MONM -290 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LEM +4 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | MONM -4.3 (+8.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.7 (+15.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MONM -2.7 (+6.7) | 141.9 (+20.1) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MONM -2.3 (+6.3) | 141.3 (+20.7) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MONM -2.0 (+6.0) | 142.5 (+19.5) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MONM -1.9 (+5.9) | 141.2 (+20.8) | 39% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LEM | MONM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 11-7 |
| Home | 9-4 | 10-4 |
| Away | 5-12 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.9 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -6.4 (#267) | -2.2 (#204) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.37 (#292) | -0.29 (#203) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.19 (#294) | -1.22 (#245) |
| RPI | 0.425 (#291) | 0.479 (#207) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LEM | MONM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 21.7% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 33.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 64.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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