Betting Lines
| Spread | BRAD -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | TXST +260 BRAD -320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TXST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRAD +14 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | BRAD -1.4 (-12.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.6 (+8.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRAD -2.9 (-11.1) | 138.7 (+11.3) | 37% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRAD -5.1 (-8.9) | 135.0 (+15.0) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRAD -0.8 (-13.2) | 138.2 (+11.8) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BRAD -2.5 (-11.5) | 140.1 (+9.9) | 38% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TXST | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 28-9 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 15-5 |
| Home | 10-4 | 14-4 |
| Away | 4-10 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 75.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 69.3 |
| Massey | 1.1 (#150) | 2.5 (#120) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.93 (#256) | 0.29 (#165) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.76 (#273) | 0.47 (#164) |
| RPI | 0.360 (#321) | 0.473 (#220) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TXST | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 52.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 43.7% |
| REB / G | 31.3 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 6.0 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.8% | 61.0% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 22.5% |
| ORB% | 19.8% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 43.7% | 29.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 45.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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