Betting Lines
| Spread | WOF -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | EKU +100 WOF -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EKU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WOF +6 | 160 | Lost |
| Massey | EKU -1.8 (-7.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.2 (+5.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | EKU -0.6 (-6.6) | 148.0 (+12.0) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | EKU -0.6 (-6.6) | 146.7 (+13.3) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WOF -0.2 (-5.8) | 147.6 (+12.4) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WOF -0.8 (-5.2) | 148.8 (+11.2) | 54% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EKU | WOF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 11-7 |
| Home | 8-7 | 10-5 |
| Away | 3-13 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.5 | 78.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 83.1 | 78.6 |
| Massey | -7.1 (#280) | -3.3 (#228) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.64 (#338) | 0.89 (#109) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.60 (#328) | 0.99 (#133) |
| RPI | 0.448 (#252) | 0.522 (#147) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EKU | WOF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 29.6% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 32.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.1% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 13.5% |
| DRB% | 65.9% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.0% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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