Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | STET +600 TOL -1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STET win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +25 | 181 | Lost |
| Massey | TOL -15.9 (-9.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.7 (+23.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -12.0 (-13.0) | 148.5 (+32.5) | 15% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -11.4 (-13.6) | 152.9 (+28.1) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -13.2 (-11.8) | 150.9 (+30.1) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -12.5 (-12.5) | 148.9 (+32.1) | 16% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STET | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-24 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 10-8 |
| Home | 5-9 | 9-4 |
| Away | 3-11 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.9 | 77.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.9 | 81.1 |
| Massey | -9.4 (#318) | 6.6 (#73) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.20 (#356) | 2.05 (#42) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.59 (#352) | 2.75 (#49) |
| RPI | 0.242 (#357) | 0.664 (#28) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STET | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 48.0% |
| 3PT% | 29.4% | 29.2% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 1.58 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 12.8% |
| ORB% | 23.5% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 15.6% | 29.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.9% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 64.6% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.6% | 13.5% |
Game Analysis
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