Betting Lines
| Spread | PSU -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Under |
| Money | PSU -1600 SHU +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PSU +31 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | PSU -16.8 (+14.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.0 (-15.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PSU -18.0 (+13.0) | 150.9 (-1.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PSU -13.8 (+17.2) | 153.0 (-4.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PSU -13.5 (+17.5) | 152.9 (-3.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PSU -14.5 (+16.5) | 151.4 (-2.4) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PSU | SHU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 9-11 |
| Home | 9-8 | 8-5 |
| Away | 2-9 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 74.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.3 | 77.6 |
| Massey | 5.2 (#101) | -6.0 (#259) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.31 (#83) | -1.54 (#300) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.32 (#110) | -2.31 (#299) |
| RPI | 0.584 (#62) | 0.387 (#328) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PSU | SHU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.1% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 2.04 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.6% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 10.9% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 61.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 66.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.5% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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