Betting Lines
| Spread | LSU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | LSU -245 DEP +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LSU +33 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | LSU -11.7 (+21.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.7 (+6.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LSU -8.1 (+24.9) | 151.4 (+7.6) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LSU -6.6 (+26.4) | 147.5 (+11.5) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LSU -6.5 (+26.5) | 149.8 (+9.2) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LSU -6.4 (+26.6) | 150.8 (+8.2) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LSU | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 8-12 |
| Home | 9-8 | 11-7 |
| Away | 3-7 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.5 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 14.1 (#26) | 2.4 (#138) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.41 (#37) | 0.05 (#181) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.94 (#31) | 0.47 (#160) |
| RPI | 0.575 (#69) | 0.463 (#227) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LSU | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.9% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 44.2 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.58 | 1.54 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.6% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 36.3% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 37.9% | 30.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.4% | 46.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.8% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.5% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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