Betting Lines
| Spread | FOR -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | FOR -455 UALB +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FOR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FOR +20 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | FOR -1.7 (+18.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 116.2 (+39.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FOR -2.5 (+17.5) | 129.2 (+26.8) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FOR -2.7 (+17.3) | 125.3 (+30.7) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FOR -3.2 (+16.8) | 127.2 (+28.8) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FOR -3.6 (+16.4) | 128.1 (+27.9) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 21, 2024 | FOR 87 – 83 UALB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FOR | UALB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 7-9 |
| Home | 11-7 | 6-5 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 68.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -5.7 (#257) | -7.4 (#283) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.49 (#216) | -2.35 (#327) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.96 (#230) | -3.24 (#321) |
| RPI | 0.434 (#282) | 0.385 (#333) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FOR | UALB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.0% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 21.5% | 26.1% |
| REB / G | 42.0 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 14.5 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 0.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.9% | 45.6% |
| TOV% | 13.4% | 23.7% |
| ORB% | 35.8% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 15.7% | 16.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 62.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.3% | 32.6% |
Game Analysis
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