Betting Lines
| Spread | LAS -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | LAS -142 MRMK +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRMK +6 | 126 | Lost |
| Massey | LAS -3.2 (-9.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.3 (-3.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LAS -1.3 (-7.3) | 132.0 (-6.0) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LAS -0.7 (-6.7) | 132.0 (-6.0) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LAS -1.0 (-7.0) | 133.7 (-7.7) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LAS -1.5 (-7.5) | 132.4 (-6.4) | 53% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAS | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 17-3 |
| Home | 8-6 | 11-0 |
| Away | 1-13 | 9-8 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.9 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.0 | 66.5 |
| Massey | -4.3 (#240) | -7.5 (#287) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.31 (#291) | -0.86 (#243) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.85 (#281) | -1.32 (#250) |
| RPI | 0.426 (#293) | 0.415 (#306) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAS | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 36.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 28.2% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 29.1 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.0% | 43.1% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 36.9% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 57.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.5% | 32.3% |
Game Analysis
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