Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCA -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCA +12 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | UNCA -4.5 (+7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.6 (-9.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCA -1.5 (+10.5) | 132.5 (-10.5) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCA -2.8 (+9.2) | 133.2 (-11.2) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCA -2.4 (+9.6) | 134.9 (-12.9) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -0.3 (+12.3) | 133.7 (-11.7) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 22, 2023 | UNCA 76 – 63 APP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCA | APP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 11-7 |
| Home | 8-7 | 11-4 |
| Away | 4-9 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 67.4 |
| Massey | -3.0 (#215) | -7.5 (#285) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.14 (#274) | -0.91 (#245) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.13 (#237) | -1.88 (#284) |
| RPI | 0.316 (#358) | 0.423 (#297) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCA | APP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.6% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 39.5% | 30.0% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.54 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.4% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 23.8% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 28.4% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 59.0% | 63.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.9% | 29.3% |
Game Analysis
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