Betting Lines
| Spread | COLG -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | COLG -118 FOR -102 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COLG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COLG +10 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | COLG -7.1 (+2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.7 (+3.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COLG -2.5 (+7.5) | 133.7 (+0.3) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COLG -3.5 (+6.5) | 132.5 (+1.5) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COLG -2.6 (+7.4) | 133.3 (+0.7) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COLG -3.7 (+6.3) | 135.2 (-1.2) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COLG | FOR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 8-10 |
| Home | 9-5 | 11-7 |
| Away | 6-10 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 2-0 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.2 | 66.3 |
| Massey | 1.4 (#148) | -5.7 (#257) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.07 (#186) | -0.49 (#216) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.01 (#182) | -0.96 (#230) |
| RPI | 0.519 (#143) | 0.434 (#282) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COLG | FOR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 40.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 21.5% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 42.0 |
| OREB / G | 6.7 | 14.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 1.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 43.9% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 13.4% |
| ORB% | 21.2% | 35.8% |
| FT Rate | 17.9% | 15.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 65.4% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 15.3% |
Game Analysis
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