Betting Lines
| Spread | CIN -24.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | CIN -5000 TAR +1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CIN +18 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | CIN -7.9 (+10.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.6 (-16.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CIN -8.3 (+9.7) | 139.9 (-5.9) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CIN -6.2 (+11.8) | 141.9 (-7.9) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CIN -7.0 (+11.0) | 142.2 (-8.2) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CIN -6.4 (+11.6) | 141.2 (-7.2) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CIN | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 5-13 |
| Home | 15-3 | 10-6 |
| Away | 2-8 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.1 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 75.8 |
| Massey | 2.9 (#130) | 0.3 (#165) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.35 (#158) | 0.99 (#104) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.48 (#160) | 1.63 (#91) |
| RPI | 0.512 (#160) | 0.565 (#81) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CIN | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 29.9% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 36.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.1% | 35.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.4% | 57.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.3% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 64.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 36.1% |
Game Analysis
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