Betting Lines
| Spread | PSU -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | PSU -1350 CAM +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PSU +11 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | PSU -17.6 (-6.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.6 (+5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PSU -17.8 (-6.8) | 147.5 (+15.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PSU -13.8 (-2.8) | 148.9 (+14.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PSU -15.6 (-4.6) | 150.6 (+12.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PSU -16.4 (-5.4) | 148.3 (+14.7) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PSU | CAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 8-10 |
| Home | 9-8 | 10-4 |
| Away | 2-9 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 76.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.3 | 78.8 |
| Massey | 6.3 (#93) | -6.0 (#259) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.19 (#93) | -0.02 (#186) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.02 (#129) | 0.07 (#180) |
| RPI | 0.559 (#91) | 0.520 (#145) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PSU | CAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.6% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 25.4% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.78 | 0.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.0% | 45.0% |
| TOV% | 12.5% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 39.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 66.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.7% | 28.2% |
Game Analysis
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