Betting Lines
| Spread | TEX -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | TEX -700 SYR +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TEX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TEX +4 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | TEX -17.7 (-13.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 178.6 (-42.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TEX -11.1 (-7.1) | 158.5 (-22.5) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TEX -8.2 (-4.2) | 154.8 (-18.8) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TEX -10.0 (-6.0) | 160.6 (-24.6) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TEX -11.4 (-7.4) | 160.4 (-24.4) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TEX | SYR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 7-13 |
| Home | 11-7 | 11-6 |
| Away | 4-6 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 3-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.5 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 77.8 |
| Massey | 12.4 (#28) | -5.3 (#264) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.18 (#199) | 1.21 (#96) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.27 (#200) | 1.55 (#110) |
| RPI | 0.425 (#282) | 0.534 (#130) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TEX | SYR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.9% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 38.8% | 25.4% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 47.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 14.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.97 | 1.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.5% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 11.5% | 12.3% |
| ORB% | 33.1% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 30.7% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.1% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 13.5% |
| DRB% | 77.6% | 84.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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