Betting Lines
| Spread | NMSU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | USA +130 NMSU -155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +2 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | NMSU -3.7 (+5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.3 (+19.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NMSU -3.2 (+5.2) | 133.1 (+18.9) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NMSU -2.5 (+4.5) | 131.8 (+20.2) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NMSU -1.4 (+3.4) | 133.0 (+19.0) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NMSU -2.3 (+4.3) | 131.8 (+20.2) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USA | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 8-12 |
| Home | 10-4 | 10-5 |
| Away | 8-7 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 73.8 |
| Massey | 0.8 (#158) | 4.6 (#112) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.90 (#49) | 2.38 (#38) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.90 (#84) | 3.60 (#39) |
| RPI | 0.534 (#127) | 0.619 (#31) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USA | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 40.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 13.7% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 35.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 40.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 75.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 11.8% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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