Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCA -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCA +5 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | UNCA -7.4 (-2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.2 (+14.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCA -4.5 (+0.5) | 142.5 (+16.5) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCA -5.6 (-0.6) | 140.0 (+19.0) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCA -5.2 (-0.2) | 140.5 (+18.5) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCA -4.9 (+0.1) | 141.1 (+17.9) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCA | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 15-19 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 9-9 |
| Home | 8-7 | 8-6 |
| Away | 4-9 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 81.9 |
| Massey | -1.8 (#196) | -9.2 (#308) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.58 (#227) | -1.97 (#316) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.58 (#212) | -2.47 (#306) |
| RPI | 0.387 (#331) | 0.394 (#324) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCA | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.2% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.57 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.6% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 23.1% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 23.6% |
| FT Rate | 30.9% | 32.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 56.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 13.2% |
| DRB% | 61.8% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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