Betting Lines
| Spread | DUQ -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 170.5 Under |
| Money | DUQ -250 W&M +205 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | W&M +4 | 162 | Lost |
| Massey | W&M -2.6 (-1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 175.7 (-13.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUQ -1.2 (-5.2) | 157.3 (+4.7) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | W&M -2.5 (-1.5) | 158.4 (+3.6) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | W&M -3.5 (-0.5) | 157.9 (+4.1) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | W&M -3.2 (-0.8) | 160.0 (+2.0) | 39% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUQ | W&M |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 10-8 |
| Home | 12-6 | 11-2 |
| Away | 5-7 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.9 | 81.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.9 | 78.9 |
| Massey | -0.5 (#176) | 7.4 (#78) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.60 (#228) | 1.66 (#65) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.99 (#233) | 2.92 (#51) |
| RPI | 0.457 (#246) | 0.564 (#81) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUQ | W&M |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.0% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.7% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 28.7% | 33.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 46.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 38.1% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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