Betting Lines
| Spread | CARK -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | CARK -110 SEMO -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SEMO +4 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | CARK -2.6 (-6.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.8 (+4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CARK -2.9 (-6.9) | 143.5 (+6.5) | 57% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CARK -3.9 (-7.9) | 145.7 (+4.3) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CARK -3.8 (-7.8) | 146.4 (+3.6) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CARK -3.2 (-7.2) | 144.7 (+5.3) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 21, 2023 | SEMO 70 – 68 CARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CARK | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-24 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 15-5 |
| Home | 7-7 | 12-3 |
| Away | 1-16 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.4 | 69.3 |
| Massey | -11.1 (#335) | -7.2 (#299) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.91 (#317) | -2.35 (#336) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.83 (#315) | -3.40 (#330) |
| RPI | 0.371 (#323) | 0.418 (#291) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CARK | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 35.8% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 27.4% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 6.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.2% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 21.6% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 24.4% | 18.2% |
| FT Rate | 12.5% | 12.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.0% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 63.4% | 65.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 40.7% |
Game Analysis
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