Betting Lines
| Spread | OU -24.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | OU -50000 ETAM +3500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OU +28 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | OU -19.9 (+8.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.5 (-2.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OU -22.0 (+6.0) | 144.4 (-4.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OU -22.3 (+5.7) | 146.1 (-6.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OU -18.0 (+10.0) | 142.8 (-2.8) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OU -19.1 (+8.9) | 142.7 (-2.7) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OU | ETAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 5-26 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 3-17 |
| Home | 12-5 | 4-10 |
| Away | 2-7 | 1-16 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.3 | 64.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 74.9 |
| Massey | 7.4 (#64) | -5.9 (#278) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.74 (#133) | -0.49 (#219) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.85 (#148) | -0.73 (#222) |
| RPI | 0.457 (#247) | 0.499 (#183) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OU | ETAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.4% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 28.2% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.69 | 0.57 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.0% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 24.9% |
| ORB% | 35.3% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 17.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.9% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 75.5% | 62.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.5% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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